Bing Elections 2016: Who will win Iowa and New Hampshire?

On February 1, the Iowa Caucus marks the next phase in the 2016 election. In response, Bing’s Election Center will move up a gear to add predictions to the Bing Political Index (BPI), candidate profiles, timeline and more.

In an early preview, Bing Predicts is calling Donald Trump to win all four of the February GOP primaries and caucuses, while Hillary Clinton is predicted to take all but New Hampshire, where we see Bernie Sanders winning. The BPI shows where each candidate stands on the key issues, while predictions will appear in the Elections Center alongside live results starting February 1.

Since 1972, the Iowa caucuses (Republican and Democratic) have served as an early indication of who might win the presidential nomination and who will drop out. With 12 Republican candidates and three Democratic candidates, voters and contenders alike are looking forward to seeing who sets the early pace.

After correctly predicting the ‘no’ vote on the Scottish Referendum, and having good success on the 2014 mid-terms, Bing Predicts is providing early insights into the first primaries on our journey to November.

Our machine-learning models use data from polls, prediction markets, and anonymized and aggregated search-engine queries to forecast the winners of the Republican and Democratic nominations at each state. We regularly revisit and revise these predictions as changes in public opinion change the likelihood of certain outcomes. For example: Candidates typically gain or lose momentum after these first electoral events. Visit bing.com/elections for the latest predictions.

Note that we predict the candidate who wins the popular vote in a given state’s primary (or caucus) rather than determine the likely choice of the delegates at each party’s national convention. As recently as 2012, Iowa delegates to the Republican National Convention reversed the popular decision and favored Ron Paul over Rick Santorum.

Iowa (February 1)

In Iowa, we expect a close race for both parties. Our models predict a win for Donald Trump (.39.8% of the votes) over Ted Cruz (30.5%) for the GOP nomination, with Marco Rubio a distant third place (12.9% of the votes). On the Democratic side, we predict a tough battle for Hillary Clinton. Our models calculate that she will beat Bernie Sanders by a small margin (50.1% of the votes for Clinton vs. 46.8% for Sanders) (Table 1).

Winning over the Iowa Caucus can give a candidate a head start in the race for the final nomination, but there’s no guarantee he or she will get their party’s nod. In 2008, Barack Obama went on from his Iowa win to secure the Democratic Party’s nomination, while Mike Huckabee, who won the Republican caucuses, withdrew from the race a couple of months later.

Table 1 – Iowa caucuses vote prediction by Bing Predicts. Percentages show share of the votes.

New Hampshire (February 9)

Moving from the Midwest to the Northeast, the picture changes. The Bing algorithms have Donald Trump (39% of the votes) prevailing in the New Hampshire Republican primaries, ahead of Ted Cruz (13.1%), Marco Rubio (12.6%), and John Kasich (11.9%) vying closely for second place. On the Democratic side, we show Bernie Sanders winning 58.4% of the votes and beating Hillary Clinton in the state neighboring his home state of Vermont.

Table 2 – New Hampshire primaries vote prediction from Bing Predicts. Percentages show share of the votes.

South Carolina (February 20 and 27)

We predict South Carolina Republicans will have Donald Trump win by a great margin with 44.3% of the votes, followed by Ted Cruz (22.6% of the votes) and Marco Rubio (14.7%). Their Democratic counterparts will probably pick Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by a wide margin: 63.5% of the votes will go to Clinton (Table 3).

Table 3 – South Carolina primaries vote prediction by Bing Predicts. Percentages show share of the votes.

Nevada (February 20 and 23)

Trump is also predicted to win the Nevada GOP caucuses (39.6% of the votes), with Cruz coming second and Ben Carson as a close number three. The Silver State Democrats are likely to overwhelmingly prefer Hillary Clinton to Bernie Sanders (Table 4).

Table 4 – Nevada caucuses vote prediction by Bing Predicts. Percentages show share of the votes.

Bing will continue to extensively cover the 2016 Elections to help you stay connected to the key issues and follow each candidate’s progress. Keep visiting bing.com/elections for the Bing Political Index, candidate timelines, and of course the latest predictions!