Two weeks after Super Tuesday, candidates and voters are gearing up for another busy Tuesday as five states will vote today. While Clinton and Trump are coming in as front runners based on the last 46 races, there are still a lot of states left to go.
After correctly calling 34 of 46 races (74%) to date, including some surprise outcomes like Sanders’s victory in Colorado, Kansas and Maine (D), and Cruz’s in Idaho (R), we’re ready to make our picks for today’s primaries.
Five states are voting today—Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio—and all hold primaries for both parties. For the Democrats, our models show Hillary Clinton winning all states expect Missouri, where a Sanders victory is predicted.
On the GOP side, get ready for excitement, as two trailing candidates will compete in their respective home states; Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio. So far, Rubio only won Minnesota, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, and Kasich hasn’t won any races, so today might be their chance to rekindle their campaigns with an important psychological victory. The stakes are even higher as Florida and Ohio (as well as Illinois and Missouri) hold winner-take-all primaries. Bing predicts a toss-up in Ohio with Donald Trump emerging as the victor, but the race is so close (33.2% predicted share of votes for Trump vs. 32.9% for Kasich) that we won’t be surprised to see either of them win; Cruz is not too far behind with a predicted 27.7% share of the votes. In Florida, our models predict Rubio (27.1%) to concede his home state to Trump (43.7%), who is also predicted to win Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina.
Be sure to check Bing for the latest predictions and past results.
Our methods
Our machine-learned predictive models use data from polls, prediction markets, anonymized and aggregated search-engine queries and social media posts to provide predictions on the winners of the Republican and Democratic nominations in each state. Note that we predict the candidate who wins the popular vote in a given state's primary (or caucus) rather than for whom the delegates would eventually vote at the party's national convention.
- The Bing Predicts Team